Want to Impress Me? Predict the Future, Not the Past

Niels Bohr was quoted in 1970 as saying, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” So it is, but, of course, only predictions about the future have any value. I appreciate the effort that goes into developing an algorithm to predict the success of something like a Broadway show, but this attempt shouldn’t be the basis for changing your marketing plans. Why not? If you’re looking back at results, you can always make a model that appears to have predicted reality. Start...

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