Potter Stage Show Guaranteed to Open Strong, but After That…
As I’ve said before, highly bankable intellectual property starts with a built-in base of guaranteed sales. J.K. Rowling’s kid wizard-based books are about as bankable a piece of IP as there is, so when a show (sorta, kinda) based on the books, or at least the characters and settings in the books, appears in a couple years, it will open strong.
After the guaranteed wave of initial sales burns off, it will either have spawned good word of mouth and repeat business that keeps it going, or it will trend down. If it trends down, the question will be whether the level it hits after it trends down is enough to keep it in business.
What makes the difference? This can be done two ways: cynically and respectfully. A cynical approach says there are so many fans of this bankable IP, and they’re so hungry for anything they can get, that we can put out a piece of schlock, and they’ll accept it.
A respectful approach says we have so many fans who care about this IP, and it’s our duty to give them something good, something worth their time, something that allows them to revel in their love for Harry and his friends (or whatever the property is).
The first approach almost never works, except in the short term. The second approach might not work either, but if all the pieces come together, it has long-term profit and success potential.
Which will this show be?